Ethereum Price Notes: Important Details from Recent Price Action

ETH follows Bitcoin. Most of the time. But here's the thing—it shouldn't be treated as just a shadow. These past three weeks? A masterclass in mixed signals. TradingView shows the price ping-ponging between $2,850 and $3,500, with the 50-day MA stubbornly flat at $3,200. Meanwhile, Glassnode's telling a different story entirely: exchange balances are bleeding out. Quiet accumulation, perhaps?

This Coinminutes note unpacks what matters from the recent chaos—structure, levels, and the momentum clues most traders miss. No fluff. Just data.

Why Ethereum Price Action Deserves Separate Attention

ETH Moves With the Market but Has Its Own Drivers

Sure, ETH correlates with the broader market. But it's not Bitcoin's puppet. Check the ETH/BTC ratio on TradingView—it's slid to roughly 0.048, a multi-month low. Relative weakness is obvious. Yet here's where it gets interesting: last month, Ethereum price pumped 8% in a single session on spot ETF buzz while Bitcoin barely moved 2%. That decoupling? It matters.

This dual nature—correlated yet independent—means you can't just copy-paste your BTC analysis onto ETH. The chart demands its own read. Different catalysts. Different psychology.

The Role of Ethereum in DeFi and Web3 Activity

Ethereum anchors DeFi. Period. DefiLlama pegs total value locked across ETH protocols near $48 billion right now, down from $55 billion two months back but still commanding over 55% of all DeFi liquidity. That's dominance. Gas fees tracked by Etherscan? Cooled to 15-25 Gwei, signaling reduced network congestion, which sounds bearish until you remember lower fees attract more users.

Supply side tells another tale. Ultrasound.money reports approximately 1.8 million ETH burned since the Merge, with net annual supply hovering near -0.2%. Mildly deflationary during high activity—basically, ETH's becoming scarcer when it matters most.

Why Short-Term Notes Can Help Readers Stay Oriented

Crypto moves fast. Narratives flip overnight. CoinGlass data shows over $120 million in ETH leveraged positions got wiped during a single wick to $2,850 last week—one candle, nine figures gone. Brutal. A focused price note serves as your compass here, contextualizing what charts show right now without drowning you in long-term hopium or doom.

Think of it as a snapshot. Not a prediction. Just orientation so you don't get caught off guard when the next wick hits.

Recent Market Structure and Trend Behavior

Tracking Higher Highs, Lower Lows, or Sideways Movement

The daily chart? Neutral. Dead neutral, actually. TradingView data shows the sequence of higher highs stalled near $3,960 in late May, and what followed wasn't pretty—lower highs at $3,520, then $3,420. Classic topping pattern, except the lows haven't cracked $2,850 yet. So we're stuck in a $650 range, which is either re-accumulation before the next leg up, or distribution before a dump.

Time will tell. But the chart isn't screaming either direction right now. Just... sideways grinding that tests patience more than skill.

Consolidation After Volatile Moves

High volatility breeds tight consolidation. Always has. The Average True Range on TradingView's daily chart compressed from $180 to under $95 over the past two weeks—that's a 47% squeeze. CoinGlass reveals open interest in ETH coin price futures declined 12% during this period, meaning leveraged traders stepped aside. Smart money knows what comes next: energy builds, then explodes.

Historical patterns confirm ETH tends to break these ranges with force. The tighter the coil, the harder the snap. We're in the coiling phase now.

Comparing ETH With Bitcoin's Direction

Bitcoin's testing $70,000. Ethereum price prediction struggling to reclaim $3,500. That gap? It pushed the ETH/BTC pair toward 0.048, lowest since early 2024. Relative weakness is undeniable, which means capital's still rotating into BTC. But here's the counterpoint: Glassnode shows addresses holding at least 1 ETH hit a new all-time high of 1.78 million—underlying conviction among medium-sized holders remains strong.

Bitcoin's the stronger leg for now. But when the rotation happens—and it will—ETH could play catch-up violently.

Key Support and Resistance Observations

Support Areas Where Buyers Have Responded

The $2,850–$2,900 zone? Rock solid. TradingView order book heatmaps show concentrated bid depth at these levels, and multiple tests produced long lower wicks with quick rebounds—classic demand behavior. DefiLlama confirms several large lending protocols have liquidation thresholds clustered near $2,700–$2,800, adding structural buying pressure. Nobody wants those liquidations cascading.

The 200-day moving average currently sits at $2,720, providing an additional safety net. Three layers of support stacked here—psychological, structural, technical. That's why dips get bought aggressively.

Resistance Zones Limiting Recovery Attempts

Upside's a different story. $3,300–$3,500 is formidable supply. CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps reveal a dense cluster of leveraged short positions with liquidation triggers above $3,480, meaning a breakout could trigger a short squeeze. Could. Each rally into this range got sold into, hard. $3,500 represents both a psychological round number and a prior breakdown point—double significance.

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A daily close above $3,500 would be the first real sign of bullish intent. Until then, it's resistance that matters.

Mid-Range Levels That Guide Short-Term Sentiment

The $3,100–$3,200 area acts as the pivot. Etherscan transaction data shows volume spikes near this zone, suggesting it's a value area where both sides agree—fair price, for now. ETH's hovering near $3,100 currently, making it sensitive. Break below? Sellers regain control. Hold above? Buyers stay in the game.

How price behaves around this mid-range often provides early clues about the next directional push. Watch it closely.

Candlestick Details Worth Noticing

Recent daily candles reveal a tug-of-war. Several sessions closed with long lower shadows—particularly that $2,850 wick on the weekly open—showing dips get bought. Yet there's no large bullish engulfing candle, which means buyers lack conviction. Multiple dojis and spinning tops near mid-range confirm indecision. Nobody's confident enough to make the big move yet.

CoinGlass funding rates? Neutral to slightly negative for over a week now. Unusual. That condition often precedes a sharp move higher as short sellers pay to hold positions.

Momentum Signals Behind Recent ETH Movement

Daily RSI on TradingView hovers around 42. Weak momentum without being oversold. MACD histogram's flat, slightly below zero—basically a flatline. Glassnode's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for ETH sits at 0.38, indicating the market's in a "belief" phase but far from euphoria. No froth. No panic. Just... waiting.

Supply side shows ETH burn rates declined to approximately 0.5% annually as network activity cooled, reducing the deflationary tailwind. But Etherscan confirms daily active addresses stabilized near 450,000—the user base isn't shrinking. It's just... idle. The real momentum signal comes when volume expands alongside a breakout from the range.

Until then? Patience beats aggression.

Conclusion

Compression. That's the word. ETH is coiled tight—anyone watching TradingView sees that $2,850–$3,500 box clear as day. But the surface doesn't show everything: CoinGlass says open interest is shrinking, funding's neutral (almost boring), and Glassnode reveals exchange balances keep dropping. Someone's quietly stacking.

The data from DefiLlama, Etherscan, and Ultrasound.money all point the same direction. This isn't chaos. It's a spring being wound. When it snaps? Volume will confirm which way. The boundaries are well-defined, and a breakout—backed by real volume—will dictate the next trend. This Coinminutes note is your reference point for staying oriented as the market unfolds. React to data, not narratives.

Useful Reference:

Ethereum Price Trends and the Growth of Decentralized Finance